Deciding Consciously (3/3)
You’re faced with a big decision, and there are plusses and minuses to every option. In part one of this series, the aim was to create a mental state for creative thoughts to flow. Part two provided tools to clarify what was most important and compare options. Today I’ll share a third set of tools I use to practice conscious decision-making.
Honoring Risks
In project management, the term “analysis paralysis” refers to a state where every possible combination of data has been analyzed in every conceivable way, yet the key leaders/decision-makers are still unable to move forward. It can happen anywhere, from VPs running multi-million dollar projects to a family deciding on whether to have a child (telling on myself here).
Fear stops us from making decisions. It makes sense from an evolutionary standpoint as a driver of our survival. There is fear in the unknown, and the future can never be known with certainty. The higher the stakes, the more paralyzing it feels. Complicating matters, most of us have been trained from a young age that fear is weakness and we should summarily vanquish it by force.
What if, instead, we approached the fear with gratitude for the role it plays and curiosity about what information it wants to share with us? Fear lives in the amygdala, one of the oldest parts of the brain, predating humans by hundreds of millions of years. Its #1 goal is to keep us safe from threats. What a fantastic function it has served, culminating in you and me sitting here, now!
While much is unknown about how the brain functions, parts of the brain that handle processing emotions are believed to be millions of years older than the language-oriented parts. It’s like there are parts of the brain with all these big feelings and no direct way to communicate them. Imagine the frustration.
This third practice aims to give a voice to those parts and invite them into conversation with our rational brains. Before jumping in, one foundational concept in risk management: Total Risk = Probability x Impact.
As an example: rock climbing is an exhilarating sport that can be dangerous due to the risk of falling, potentially causing injury or death. Climbers can reduce the probability of falling with things like proper training, specialized shoes, and chalk. They can reduce the impact of falling with safety gear like rope and harnesses for high climbs, and thick mats for bouldering—climbing lower to the ground.
Find ways to reduce probability and impact to get closer to the bottom left square
Exercise:
Grab a pen and paper or your favorite spreadsheet app. List as many answers as you can think of for the following prompt. Instead of analyzing any one item, merely list all of them out at once without judgment. “What’s the worst result that could happen?”
Add three columns to the top: probability, impact, total.
For each risk you’ve identified, assign a value for the first two columns. Multiply them for the total. One method is a 1-10 scale, where 1 indicates low probability/low impact. Another is to assign probabilities as a decimal (50% —> 0.5) and impact as a dollar figure (e.g. 0.5 x $1000 = $500). For comparing options, it’s better to use the same method throughout the exercise.
Notice the totals. Does anything stand out as more or less risky than you expected? If the list is long, it may be helpful to reorder the rows with the highest total on top.
For each one, adopt a strategy. The list below provides a reference.
ROAM acronym for managing risks:
Resolved: The risk is not a threat at this time. No further action is required.
Owned: The risk cannot be resolved now, so someone will ‘own’ the handling of that risk, actively looking for new ways to reduce it.
Accepted: The risk cannot be resolved, so it must be accepted as-is and dealt with as necessary.
Mitigated: The risk exists but there is a plan to reduce the probability/impact.
Example risk plan for deciding to have a child (some elements are borrowed from real life but not all)
l hope this has been helpful. These practices have provided clarity to a lot of big crossroads in my life. Similar to agile, this framework is not a silver bullet but rather a way to shine light on things that may be lurking below the surface of a decision.
If you have gone through all of this and are still really chewing on that big decision, it’s ok! We’ve all been there. It never hurts to sit with it some more, or walk with it. Also, speaking as a coach, one-on-one coaching can be extremely powerful! Reach out to me for a free introduction session. It would be my privilege to support you, my fellow human, on your journey.
